The interim government of Afghanistan, formed by the Taliban movement (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation), decided to install a 1520 mm gauge on the projected Trans-Afghan Railway, which is unofficially called “Russian”.
“We would very much like for both Kazakhstan and Russia to become more active and join this project… And most importantly, the Afghan government has already decided to install a 1520 mm gauge on this route, so that Russian cars do not need to change the platform on this section and there is a straight line transit without changing platforms,” Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat, director of the Afghan Railways Department, told TASS .
A large-scale project to build the Trans-Afghan Railway was agreed upon two years ago by Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
According to the project, the road should run from the Uzbek border city of Termez – through Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan, then through Kabul – and end in Pakistani Peshawar.
It is assumed that the highway, connecting the post-Soviet railway network with Pakistani routes (and therefore with ports in the Indian Ocean), is capable of establishing a direct railway connection between Europe and India. Moreover, according to the plan, a special transit role will go to Russia, through which the route will have to run.
However, difficulties arose almost immediately with financing this plan. To implement it, it will be necessary to spend about 5 billion dollars to complete the construction of the railway by 2026–2027. However, it is also impossible to say that the initiative has no future – next year it is planned to hold a “Russian-Afghan Friendship” meeting, at which the possibility of Russian investment will be discussed.
The potential of the project is truly impressive – up to 20 million tons of cargo can travel along the Trans-Afghan Railway per year, significantly increasing regional trade turnover.
This will not only increase profits, but also reduce overall transport costs by at least 40%. For Russia, this means that it could export its goods through Pakistan’s seaports to both the Middle East and Southeast Asia. This would significantly expand the number of partners who are willing to trade with Moscow, despite Western sanctions.
According to Andrei Grozin, head of the Central Asia department at the Institute of CIS Countries , the Trans-Afghan Railway is beneficial to Russia not only in geopolitical terms.
“The emergence of new commodity flows always stimulates the emergence of new jobs, new industries, new enterprises. For ordinary citizens living in the Russian regions through which transit will be carried out, this is new money and new connections ,” the expert said in a commentary to Regnum news agency.
The main problem is in Afghanistan: investors do not want to deal with the internationally unrecognized Taliban government, and are also afraid of possible political turbulence in the country. Another obstacle is the Afghan landscape, dotted with mountains and valleys. In addition, Kabul cannot begin construction solely at its own expense, including because after the fall of the pro-American government of Ashraf Ghani , Washington misappropriated more than $9 billion from the country’s state budget through the efforts of Washington.
The Taliban have long publicly expressed interest in cooperation with Russia, negotiations are regularly held at various levels, but they have never received diplomatic recognition from the Kremlin. Grozin emphasizes that the Kremlin is in no hurry to take this important step due to Kabul’s unwillingness to demonstrate a desire to integrate into the regional security system:
“For Russia to recognize the Taliban, it needs a clearer commitment to supporting pan-Eurasian stability. Yes, they are fighting drug trafficking. Yes, they have achieved some success. But the activities of the structures that we call international terrorist organizations (ITOs) on the territory of Afghanistan have not stopped, they have not gone away. This causes similar concern in China, which sees a threat from groups intending to start operating in Xinjiang ,” he said.
Moscow and Beijing are not the only ones concerned about the terrorist threat posed by Afghanistan. Pakistan, a direct partner in the Trans-Afghan Railway project, has faced regular skirmishes on its northern borders. In conjunction with extremism, the ethnic issue came into play there – the Durand Line, drawn by the British at the end of the 19th century, “to the quick” divided the Pashtun people on two sides of the border. As is known, the Taliban represents precisely this group of the population, and therefore actively sponsors Pashtun armed forces fighting against Islamabad.
Considering all the above problems, there are no prospects for a lightning-fast start to construction yet. The Trans-Afghan Railway could provide many benefits not only to the signatory countries, but also to most Eurasian states. However, the state in which Afghanistan remained after the end of the US occupation does not satisfy the objective political and economic requirements on which the success of ambitious plans depends.
Source : regnum.ru